HONG KONG, June 2 (Xinhua) -- There may be inflation fear for the global economy in the future, but high unemployment and slower economic growths will help keep inflation in check for a while, an economist of BNP Paribas said here Tuesday.

    "We are not there for inflation tomorrow morning, but there is a fear that inflation could come up," Philippe d'Arvisenet, global chief economist of BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department, told a press conference on global economic outlook.

    D'Arvisenet said the headwinds have been recently mitigating, and investors looked desperately for good news from indicator factors such as inventory adjustment, oil prices, the United States housing sector, interest rates and fiscal policies.

    Nevertheless, he cautioned that ingredients for disappointments might still lie ahead, like the lagging variables of employment and defaults. The consolidation of households balance sheets wouldalso take time and keep a drag on growths.

    D'Arvisenet said he expected unemployment to rise to 11 percent in the United States next year, adding that job creation, one of the key indicators in economic circles, would not fully recover until the end of 2010.

    The output gap is most likely to remain for a time to come as demand remains weak. The expansion of the monetary base, moreover, does not necessarily lead to higher prices as money multiplier drops amid the severe global recession.

    "They are to keep exerting a downward pressure on underlying inflation," said d'Arvisenet.

    Most of the developed economies will see lower sustainable growths even after the recovery due to their aging population, among others.

    Europe, for example, will be in for potential annual growths of1 percent, instead of 3 percent, on a sustainable basis, he said.

    D'Arvisenet said he expected China and Asia, excluding Japan, will come out of the crisis first, followed by their trading partners such as Australia and Canada.

    China had been trying to cooling down their economy before the financial crisis began in the West and will most probably come out earlier as well, he said.

    D'Arvisenet said the recent rallies in Asian stock markets should not be a source of concern, as stock markets are typically a leading indicator.

    Nevertheless, investors should be cautious, he said.

    "I would not bet on a lasted recovery in the stock market like this," he said, referring to the recent sharp gains in the capital- rich Hong Kong market.